Top 5 (positive) surprises of the Nats' 2024

Honorable mention: Stone Garrett

Stone Garrett’s talent is no surprise.  But when his leg stuck in the wall at Yankee Stadium in late-summer 2023, it was obvious that we wouldn’t see him on a major league field for a while, and it was easy to wonder if we’d ever see him on a major league field again.  While there are breathless daily reports from the minors about the performance of a top draft pick, 28-year old draftees from 2014 rehabbing an injury can easily get lost in the minor-league shuffle.  Garrett’s performance in Rochester for much of the season, while regaining full strength and function in his leg, was nothing exceptional.  Regardless, it was a pleasant surprise to see him get called up for the last few games of the season.  It was disappointing when those first three games passed and he didn’t get off the bench, but did that patience ever pay off!  In his first at-bat in game 160, Stone launched an absolute rocket, the result of 12+ months of unimaginable perseverance and effort, over the left-field fence.  His emotional release and subsequent post-game interview were incredible to see and made for one of the top moments of the whole season.  We at NFR are hoping he carves out a place on the 2025 roster.  

#5: The return in exchange for Lane Thomas

The trading away of Lane Thomas in late July had a feeling of inevitability.  That inevitability didn’t ease the pain of the reality when it happened though.  As with many deadline deals, it may take years to fully appreciate the details of the trade, especially when a 17-year old and a 19-year old are part of the deal.  In all, the Nats received Alex Clemmey, Rafael Ramirez Jr and Jose Tena from the Guardians for Lane.  Tena’s offensive potential was evident pretty much from day 1 on the major league roster, though his defensive limitations became evident about as quickly.  But both Clemmey and Ramirez Jr are legitimate major-league prospects, and considering their ages, they may be key parts of the franchise not next year or even in 2026, but in the latter years of this decade.  If EITHER of them pan out as every day players, it will be another laurel for Mike Rizzo’s dealmaking crown.  

#4: Nasim Nunez’ flashy glove

Not much is generally expected of a Rule 5 draftee, and for the first ¾ of the season, Nunez justified those limited expectations, basically by being invisible save for some pinch-running opportunities late in games.  As a career .233 hitter in the minors (though with an unexpected 5 HR in AA last year!), expectations may have been further muted.  

But the all-seeing eye of Mike Rizzo may have struck again.  Late in the season, as CJ Abrams was first banged up and then banished, Nunez had increasing opportunities to play SS.  We saw a slick fielder with an absolute cannon of an arm, and competence, if not excellence, at the plate (a .246 avg this year).  I would expect him to start next season at AAA, as he’s no longer bound under Rule 5 obligations, but at only 23 years old, he also has room to grow.  I wouldn’t go so far as to suggest that CJ Abrams has competition at SS, but the Nats should take great comfort in knowing that their entire minor league pipeline is in good shape at SS, headed by Nunez.  

#3: DJ Herz swing-and-miss ability

DJ Herz was the Cubs’ 17-ranked prospect when he, along with #16 prospect Kevin Made, were pried away from Chicago in exchange for 3 months of Jeimer Candelario’s services.  As an 8th round pick, he would have moderate expectations, but the Nats gave him a chance once some injuries struck their starting rotation, and he acquitted himself nice. A 4-9 record isn’t inspiring, but an ERA of 4.19 is more encouraging.  Best of all was evidence that his fastball and changeup combination are effective pitches - when he can keep them in and near the strike zone.  His K% and Whiff% are both well above average, demonstrating his ability to keep batters off-balance with an above-average changeup that makes his 94MPH fastball play a bit faster.  He’ll certainly get a shot at a rotation spot in spring training, but he could be an effective weapon out of the bullpen ultimately also.  

#2 - Jacob Young’s Gold Glove-caliber defense

A 7th round pick in 2021 out of Florida, Jacob Young is the poster child for the Nats’ player development department.  We saw some flashes of good defense late in 2023, but when Victor Robles hit the IL in early April, Young got the call and didn’t relinquish CF duties for the remainder of the season.  Yes, there are significant offensive limitations in Young’s game currently (though Rizzo has said they’re confident we’ll see an improvement in those metrics next year).  But his 21 Outs Above Average (#1 amongst MLB outfielders) is impossible to ignore.  He comes in and moves laterally on balls with great instincts and fluidity.  Going back on balls is not quite as much of a strength, but he is almost certainly a shoo-in a NL Gold Glove finalist.  His future value to the Nats may be as a 4th outfielder and late-game defensive and pinch-running sub (this week Sports Illustrated even floated him as a potential off-season trade candidate for the Nats), and there are more OF prospects down on the farm who may be knocking on the major-league door soon, but none of that should detract from a great season for JY.

#1 - Mitchell Parker

Mitchell Parker claims this #1 spot not just because of the quality of his play this season, but because of the lack of fanfare associated with his minor-league career.  A 5th-round draft pick in 2020, Parker was only the 24th-ranked prospect in the organization just last year.  There wasn’t much data to suggest that he was major-league ready.  But, much like Herz, Mitchell responded magnificently when an injury gave him an opportunity.  His Walk% ticked up quite a bit as the season wore on, but those first 4-6 weeks were just an incredible display of control from him, and he still finished the season with a well above-average Walk%.  He is effective, yet isn’t a strikeout pitcher…or really a ground-ball pitcher…or really anything exceptional.  In fact, only his curveball had a + Run Value this season.  100MPH fastballs are nice, but seeing a young pitcher figure out how to get major leaguers out without dominant stuff is a fun journey!  All of that combines to make him a pleasant surprise indeed.  He’ll need to show some growth in Spring Training, in consistency and particularly in fielding, but he should have an inside track on a starting spot in the 2025 rotation.